Same pre-tax salary committed to retirement saving. Which path produces a larger after-tax nest egg: a traditional pre-tax 401(k) or a post-tax Roth IRA? The answer depends almost entirely on whether your retirement marginal rate will be higher or lower than your current rate.
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Recommendation
Traditional 401(k) wins
30 years until retirement · marginal rate delta 2.0%
$2,173,705
After-tax retirement value
$2,136,547
After-tax retirement value
Both paths grow at the same real return; the difference is when tax is paid. The calculator computes after-tax future value of each path for the same pre-tax dollar commitment.
match = preTaxContribution × matchPct. Always added to the 401(k) on both paths since employer matches are pre-tax regardless.
FV(preTax + match) growing at r for n years; multiply by (1 − retirementMarginalRate) for after-tax value.
Effective contribution = preTax × (1 − currentMarginalRate). FV grows tax-free; no tax on withdrawal. Add the matched 401(k) FV taxed at retirement rate.
Higher after-tax FV wins. If within $1 of each other, the calculator reports a tie.
n = 30 years; r = 6%; match = 23,500 × 50% = $11,750. Traditional path: Annual growing = 23,500 + 11,750 = 35,250 FV gross ≈ 35,250 × ((1.06)^30 − 1)/0.06 ≈ 35,250 × 79.058 ≈ 2,786,000 After tax (× 0.88) ≈ $2,452,000 Roth path: Roth annual = 23,500 × (1 − 0.32) = $15,980 FV Roth ≈ 15,980 × 79.058 ≈ $1,263,000 (tax-free) Match still 401k → FV match × 0.88 ≈ 11,750 × 79.058 × 0.88 ≈ $817,000 Total Roth after-tax ≈ $2,080,000 Verdict: Traditional wins by ~$370k. Reason: dropping from 32% current rate to 12% retirement rate is the dominant factor when the rate spread is wide.
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